US Election 2016 Poll and Disscusion

[Desperada]

Thank you Shunlvxws and Travlnman2 for the informative answer's to my question.
I enjoyed reading this thread, I am not on social media and I appreciated reading opinions from America and else where.
It's over at last!
Very best wishes to all!

[Jonny Come Lately]

I don't really feel that comfortable about talking about politics on internet message boards, hence why I've not participated in this thread until now. However, TM has mentioned a point which I find very interesting, as it matches the situation observed in recent votes in the UK.

All I can say is that the result is that was... unexpected. I was genuinely stunned when I found out this morning.

One thing for sure is that all these pollesters need to find new jobs

This interests me because the pollsters over here also incorrectly predicted the results of the most recent UK general election and the EU referendum. Here are some more details for context:

1) 2015 UK general election
Pollsters: Predict the election will be too close to call between Labour and the Conservatives. Most likely outcomes would be either a minority government, or a Labour/Scottish Nationalist coalition.
Actual outcome: Conservatives win a small majority and actually gain seats and a larger share of the vote; Labour has nearly 100 parliamentary seats fewer.

2) 2016 EU referendum
Pollsters: Predict a victory for the Remain campaign
Actual outcome: Leave campaign wins

3) 2016 US presidential election
Pollsters: Predict Hillary Clinton (Democrat) to win (although it was fairly close in the end, she was consistently ahead in the polls for months)
Actual outcome: Donald Trump (Republican) wins

The pollsters have been wrong each time, and I think it's the same problem on every occasion. I think there is a consistent trend that the pollsters underestimate support for the more conservative/right-wing viewpoint, which on all three occasions has gone on to win. Some possible explanations for the result of the last general election (and therefore by extension, possibly the EU referendum and US election results) are offered here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...pinion_polling

[travlnman2]

I don't really feel that comfortable about talking about politics on internet message boards, hence why I've not participated in this thread until now. However, TM has mentioned a point which I find very interesting, as it matches the situation observed in recent votes in the UK.

All I can say is that the result is that was... unexpected. I was genuinely stunned when I found out this morning.



This interests me because the pollsters over here also incorrectly predicted the results of the most recent UK general election and the EU referendum. Here are some more details for context:

1) 2015 UK general election
Pollsters: Predict the election will be too close to call between Labour and the Conservatives. Most likely outcomes would be either a minority government, or a Labour/Scottish Nationalist coalition.
Actual outcome: Conservatives win a small majority and actually gain seats and a larger share of the vote; Labour has nearly 100 parliamentary seats fewer.

2) 2016 EU referendum
Pollsters: Predict a victory for the Remain campaign
Actual outcome: Leave campaign wins

3) 2016 US presidential election
Pollsters: Predict Hillary Clinton (Democrat) to win (although it was fairly close in the end, she was consistently ahead in the polls for months)
Actual outcome: Donald Trump (Republican) wins

The pollsters have been wrong each time, and I think it's the same problem on every occasion. I think there is a consistent trend that the pollsters underestimate support for the more conservative/right-wing viewpoint, which on all three occasions has gone on to win. Some possible explanations for the result of the last general election (and therefore by extension, possibly the EU referendum and US election results) are offered here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...pinion_polling

Take a look at our own non scientific poll.

[scottside]

The polls in the U.S. were off, but not beyond the margin of error. Going into Election Day, Hillary was up anywhere between 2-4 points nationwide and the margin of error was about 3%. She will end up winning the popular vote by about 1% in the end so that's really not out of line. Where the big shock came was in the Electoral College vote. Nobody expected Trump to win the Rust Best states and many didn't think he could win either North Carolina or Florida. Ohio, was pretty much a toss-up, but he may have had a slight advantage there.

In the end, it was the Silent Majority who came out and voted and there were people who were Trump supporters who wouldn't tell pollsters or ANYONE that because they didn't want to deal with the backlash.

Like it or not, Trump put states in play that Republicans just don't win. They don't complete in them at all. The map has now officially changed. Some of the Republican states in the South will gradually become more Democrat-leaning over time and I think some of the Midwest will become more receptive to Republicans if they put the time and energy to campaign there.

[travlnman2]

"Everyone is upset when their side loses but we must remember we are all really on the same side. We are not Democrats or Republicans first, we are American's first. This is an intermarriage scrimmage."
- President Obama

I am actually going to praise him. Very very good words.

[WalshFan88]

The polls in the U.S. were off, but not beyond the margin of error. Going into Election Day, Hillary was up anywhere between 2-4 points nationwide and the margin of error was about 3%. She will end up winning the popular vote by about 1% in the end so that's really not out of line. Where the big shock came was in the Electoral College vote. Nobody expected Trump to win the Rust Best states and many didn't think he could win either North Carolina or Florida. Ohio, was pretty much a toss-up, but he may have had a slight advantage there.

In the end, it was the Silent Majority who came out and voted and there were people who were Trump supporters who wouldn't tell pollsters or ANYONE that because they didn't want to deal with the backlash.

Like it or not, Trump put states in play that Republicans just don't win. They don't complete in them at all. The map has now officially changed. Some of the Republican states in the South will gradually become more Democrat-leaning over time and I think some of the Midwest will become more receptive to Republicans if they put the time and energy to campaign there.

I felt inclined to respond.

Actually, according to most she won the popular vote by quite a bit and it was mostly the Electoral College that put him in.

That said, I can sympathize with why they would be afraid to come out. He isn't someone I'd be proud to support. He stands for everything I'm against, and exemplifies everything I find wrong with some people. And obviously there are a lot of us that disagree.

I think the Donald Trump effect will forever leave a stain on interpersonal relationships. It tells bullies it's ok, however subconsciously it's said. It tells our youth that behaving that way is ok, after all our President did it.

To me he lost me when he mocked the disabled guy. That was the last straw. And he kept making more and more comments that disgusted me. As a disabled person, I could never support someone no matter what he promised to do for America. Call that selfish, but it's not just for me. It's for all folks. It's for disabled people who've been bullied. It's for women who've been sexually assaulted or mocked for their appearance. It's for those of color who have been the brunt of jokes and mistreatment and discrimination. It's for those in the LGBT community who feel it's two steps backward and promotes discrimination. It's for those of foreign countries who are slandered and called horrific names.

For them, I couldn't do it. For US in our (the above mentioned groups) shoes I couldn't do it. I cannot support a man who does that no matter what he promises (which are usually not backed up by real solutions anyway).

Yes, I'm a democrat but was excited at first that he wasn't a politician already with fresh ideas. Then I started catching on that he cares nothing about the little guy. And the fact he never cared. He screwed them over for personal gain. Then the slandering comments, the mocking, the asinine remarks. The empty promises. That ruined him for me. Not because I'm a democrat. But because he is a grade A top choice cut of jerk I've ever seen in my life. That is the reason.

If it had been "republican" vs Hillary or "democrat", I wouldn't be as nearly involved or outspoken. Instead I saw it as "subhuman mongrel" vs "I've made big mistakes and not perfect but want equality and fair treatment". It has nothing to do with politics. For me it's about the character of the person.

And I cannot and still not see him as presidential material. I will never afford him the respect I'd give even George W. Bush, who I was NOT a fan of. I won't.

[MortSahlFan]

I worked for Bernie Sanders, but it was rigged, and I stayed out of the mess, but think I prefer Trump only because I know all the right-winged garbage Clinton is responsible for (and more) so there's a 1% chance for Trump to do something meanwhile, but I think we are screwed on many levels and have been - it's not just this election.

[StephUK]

Very interesting thread. As I live in the UK I'm a "spectator" of this election.
The choice of Trump as President has certainly brought about a variety of reactions around the world.
Personally, I think the US electorate had a choice between 2 fairly poor candidates this time. Reading this thread, I think many of you feel the same.

On the subject of polls, I never trust them. I think the polls can be rigged to try to influence voters.

[zeldabjr]

since I've been on this board it's been an enjoyable political free place...I am disappointed that Nancy didn't choose to keep it that way...just my opinion...

[RudieCantFail]

From 2008 to 2012, the GOP only gained NC, Indiana, and the 1 electoral vote from Nebraska, and Obama won those in 2008. In 2016, the GOP got Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and 1 electoral vote from Maine, and Obama won those in 2008 and 2012.

These 8 states and 2 partial electoral votes over the course of 8 years witnessed that Obama's policies did not help them and they felt screwed over, i.e. Obamacare being mandatory, premiums going up, not keeping your health plan. Racism and prejudice in other areas aren't the main reasons why they switched over. Although some of you may believe that Trump will screw them over too, they don't care at the moment. They want a change of pace. They are tired of a Democratic presidency because they feel that anything different would be better than a continuation of Obama/Democratic policies for the next 4 years, even if the candidate of choice is despicable. It's hard to convince voters that maintaining the status quo is better for them, if they had to live through 8 years of it already. Depending if Trump does a good job or not, they may switch Democratic again in 2020.

I honestly thought that this was the GOP's to lose once Trump got the nomination. Also, I'm not sure that this type of enthusiasm would have happened if Bush or Kasich got the nomination since they're moderate types.

To address the first part of WalshFan88's recent post, Hillary only won the popular vote by a margin of about 200k. In 2000, Gore won the popular vote by about a 500k margin. She didn't win by much in that aspect.